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href="http://www.ducatiukracing.com/MroeNews.aspx">煤市分析</A></TD></TR> <TR> <TD colSpan=2 class="newsContent"> <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" > <HTML> <HEAD> <meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html;charset=gb2312" /> <title>2006òq´å±±è¥¿ç…¤ç‚­å¸‚场充满了变数

2006òq´å±±è¥¿ç…¤ç‚­å¸‚场充满了变数

06--1--14

    1æœ?SPAN lang=EN-US>10æ—?/SPAN>åQŒç»åŽ†äº†10å¤?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>充满了矛监֒Œæˆ˜æ–—â€?/SPAN>的济南会(x¨¬)议之后，太原煤炭交易市场信息部工作äh员葛兰终于回åˆîCº†å¤ªåŽŸã€‚在˜q™æ¬¡å…¨ç…¤ä¼?x¨¬)上åQŒç”±äºŽç…¤ç”?sh¨´)博弈达到白热化åQŒå±±è¥¿çœå‚会(x¨¬)的上癑֮¶ç…¤ç‚­ä¼ä¸šæ²¡æœ‰½{‘Ö›žä¸€ä»½ä­h(hu¨¢n)格明¼‹®çš„购销合同åQ?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>随行ž®±å¸‚â€?/SPAN>ž®†æˆä¸ÞZ»Šòq´ç…¤ä»ïL(f¨¥ng)š„主题词。而作为山西省煤炭交易的市场监‹¹‹éƒ¨é—¨ï¼Œå› äØ“(f¨´)在ä­h(hu¨¢n)格方é?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>两手½Iºç©ºâ€?/SPAN>åQŒç…¤ç‚­äº¤æ˜“市场对于今òq´ç…¤ä»ïL(f¨¥ng)š„涨跌大势åQŒä¹Ÿè®‘Ö®šäº†æ— æ•°çš„½{”案。电(sh¨´)ç…¤ä­h(hu¨¢n)格首‹Æ¡æ”¾å¼€ä¹‹åŽçš?SPAN lang=EN-US>2006òqß_(d¨¢)¼Œå±?SPAN lang=EN-US>西煤炭市场将注定充满了变数和风æ‡Lã€?/FONT>
    ç”늅¤æ¶¨ä­h(hu¨¢n) 蓄能已久
    â€?/FONT>市场åŒ?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>åQŒè®©ç…¤ä­h(hu¨¢n)与市场接轨，对于å±Þp¥¿çœä¼—多大中型煤炭企业的当家者来è¯ß_(d¨¢)¼Œå›½å®¶å‘改委的˜q™ä¸€è¡¨æ€ï¼Œæ— ç–‘是年初最大的利好消息。山西省受电(sh¨´)煤供应ä­h(hu¨¢n)æ ?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>计划体制â€?/SPAN>的媄响，可谓时日久矣。据太原煤炭交易市场张晋源主ä»ÖM»‹¾lï¼Œå±Þp¥¿çœè¿‡åŽÈš„煤炭销售往往是ä­h(hu¨¢n)低时èµîC½ŽåQŒå¸‚åœÞZ­h(hu¨¢n)高时依然èµîC½Žã€‚以前，ä¸ÞZº†ä¿è¯ç”?sh¨´)力企业的正常生产和低ä­h(hu¨¢n)è´­ç…¤åQŒå±±è¥¿çœçš„煤炭一直执行着极低的ä­h(hu¨¢n)æ û|¼Œä¸€å¨ç…¤åå‡ å…ƒæˆ–者二十元é’Þqš„ä»äh ¼åQŒæ ¹æœ¬æ— æ³•åæ˜ ç…¤ç‚­èµ„源的真实价倹{€?/FONT>
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    ä»äh ¼çš„长期受压，使山西省企业在今òq´ç…¤ä»äh”¾å¼€ä¹‹åŽåQŒå…·æœ‰äº†æžå¤§çš„上涨动能。在理性测½Ž—煤炭的市场需求、成本因素之后，å±Þp¥¿çœæ‹¿å‡ÞZº†å‚加今年全国重点煤炭产运需衔接ä¼?x¨¬)的基本煤炭售ä­h(hu¨¢n)åQŒæ ¹æ?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>以质计ä­h(hu¨¢n)、基质基仗÷€ä¼˜è´¨ä¼˜ä»?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>的原则，吨煤¾l¼åˆå”®ä­h(hu¨¢n)òq›_‡ä¸ºæ¯å?SPAN lang=EN-US>300元左叻I¼›ä¸€äº›çƒ­é‡é«˜ã€å“è´¨å¥½çš„ç…¤¿Uä­h(hu¨¢n)格再略高一些ã€?/FONT>
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    å±Þp¥¿çœç”µ(sh¨´)ç…¤ä­h(hu¨¢n)格的ž®å¹…上调åQŒå´æ²¡å¾—到市场的回应。太原煤炭交易市场的葛兰全程参加了这‹Æ?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>全煤ä¼?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>。据她介¾lï¼Œä½œäØ“(f¨´)一òq´ä¸€åº¦ç…¤ç‚­é”€å”®å’Œä»äh ¼çš„定调会(x¨¬)åQŒå±±è¥¿çœå¤§éƒ¨åˆ†ç…¤ç‚­ä¼ä¸šéƒ½å‚加了这‹Æ¡ä¼š(x¨¬)议，但是åQŒæ²¡æœ‰ä¸€å®¶ä¼ä¸šç­¾ä¸‹æ˜Ž¼‹®çš„交易ä»äh ¼ã€?/FONT>
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    ä»äh ¼è°ˆä¸ä¸‹æ¥åQŒç…¤ç”?sh¨´)双æ–Ò?gu¨©)œ€¾lˆé€‰æ‹©äº†ä¸€æ¡å¤§å®¶ç›®å‰éƒ½èƒ½æŽ¥å—的办法。äØ“(f¨´)了先保证今年的铁路运力，合同只签数量åQŒä¸½{¾ä­h(hu¨¢n)æ ¹{€‚è¿™æ øP¼Œä¸€ä»½ä†¾æ²¡æœ‰ä»äh ¼çš„煤炭销售合同就产生了，对于˜q™æ ·ä¸€¿UçŽ°è±¡ï¼Œä¸€ä½å‚ä¼?x¨¬)的煤炭企业˜q™æ ·å¯šw€šè®¯å‘˜è¡¨½Cºï¼Œž®½ç®¡ä¸ÞZº†ä¿è¯˜qåŠ›åQŒå¤§å®¶ç­¾ä¸‹äº†˜q™ç§åˆåŒåQŒä½†æ˜¯ï¼Œ˜q™ç§æ²¡æœ‰ä»äh ¼çš„销售合同，对双方的¾U¦æŸåŠ›åˆ°åº•æœ‰å¤šå¤§åQŒè°å¿ƒé‡Œä¹Ÿæ²¡åº•ã€?/FONT>
    â€?/FONT>ä»äh ¼è°ˆåˆ¤æœªæžœåQŒå°±æ„å‘³ç€ä»ŽçŽ°åœ¨å¼€å§‹ï¼Œæˆ‘们的煤炭真正进入了市场化，随行ž®±å¸‚åQŒå°†æˆäØ“(f¨´)交易常态！â€?/SPAN>相关人士介绍åQŒç…¤ç‚­ä­h(hu¨¢n)格将从现在的â€?/SPAN>一¾U¸åˆåŒå®šä¸€òq?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>åQŒå˜æˆå®šä¸€å­£ï¼Œç”šè‡³å®šä¸€æœˆï¼Œå¦‚æ­¤˜q™èˆ¬åQŒçš„¼‹®æ˜¯æŠŠæœ¬çœç…¤ç‚­ä¼ä¸šæŽ¨åˆîCº†å¸‚场的最前沿ã€?/FONT>
    供需市场 充满变数
    没有äº?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>计划ä»äh ¼â€?/SPAN>的指挥捧åQŒå±±è¥¿çœçš„电(sh¨´)ç…¤ä­h(hu¨¢n)格应该将更加灉|´»åQŒä½†å…¶ä¸­è•´å«çš„市场风险，自然也会(x¨¬)随之加大ã€?/FONT>
    据煤炭市场的张主ä»Õdˆ†æžï¼Œä»Šå¹´çš„电(sh¨´)ç…¤ä­h(hu¨¢n)æ ég¹‹æ‰€ä»¥æ”¾å¼€åQŒå…³é”®çš„一点，是国家对今年的煤炭供需市场有了大概的把握，即供需基本òqŒ™¡¡åQŒä¸ä¼?x¨¬)出现强烈的市场矛盾。这是因为，今年国内煤炭需求增速将¾l§ç®‹å‡ç¼“åQŒè¿™ä¸€­‘‹åŠ¿åQŒä¸Žå®è§‚¾læµŽçš?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>软着é™?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>密切相关åQŒå¦ä¸€æ–šw¢åQŒç…¤ç‚­åˆ©ç”¨æ•ˆçŽ‡çš„不断提高、天然气½{‰æ›¿ä»£èƒ½æºä‹É用的增多åQŒä»¥å?qi¨¢ng)交通运输、徏½{‘和居民生活½{‰é¢†åŸŸç”¨ç…¤çš„减少åQŒå¯¼è‡´ç…¤ç‚­éœ€æ±‚增速的减缓。目前全½C¾ä¼š(x¨¬)用户存煤已达åˆîCº†1.2亿吨左右åQŒå·²è¾‘Öˆ°äº†æ­£å¸¸å­˜ç…¤çš„额度åQŒç…¤ç‚­ä¾›åº”紧张局面得åˆîCº†æœ‰æ•ˆ¾~“解。这æ øP¼Œâ€?/SPAN>市场åŒ?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>后，å±Þp¥¿çœçš„煤炭ä»äh ¼è°ˆåˆ¤½Iºé—´ä¹Ÿæ˜Žæ˜„¡¾ƒ?y¨­u)®ï¼Œå› æ­¤åQŒä»Šòq´æ€ÖM½“的煤炭ä­h(hu¨¢n)æ û|¼Œå¯èƒ½ä¼?x¨¬)保持一个稳定的态势åQŒå½“然不排除在季节、供应和其他因素的作用下åQŒç…¤ç‚­ä­h(hu¨¢n)格出现小òq…的波动ã€?/FONT>
    也正是基于这一点的考虑åQŒç”µ(sh¨´)力企业面对煤炭ä­h(hu¨¢n)格的上涨åQŒä¿æŒç€˜q‘乎强硬的姿态。据å±Þp¥¿å¸‚一家电(sh¨´)厂燃料科的负责äh透露åQ?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>全煤ä¼?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>上电(sh¨´)力企业的态度åQŒåŸºæœ¬ä¸Šåæ˜ äº†ç›®å‰ç”µ(sh¨´)力企业的状况。目前的煤炭供应已基本åã^½E»I¼Œä»äh ¼è‡ªç„¶ä¸åº”抬得˜q‡é«˜ã€‚而相关专家分析，ç”?sh¨´)力企业最大的心理支撑点还在于åQŒç”µ(sh¨´)力生产关乎全½C¾ä¼š(x¨¬)生活的方斚w¢é¢ï¼Œä¸€ç›´æ‰§è¡?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>计划ç”?sh¨´)ä­h(hu¨¢n)â€?/SPAN>åQŒè€Œå¦‚果煤价太高，ç”?sh¨´)力企业两头受压åQŒè‚¯å®šæ‰¿å—不了，最后还ä¼?x¨¬)媄响社会(x¨¬)ç”?sh¨´)力稳定，相关部门不愿看到˜q™ç§å±€é¢å‘生。这æ øP¼Œæœ€åŽå¯èƒ½ä¼š(x¨¬)造成煤电(sh¨´)双方涨与不涨的交易僵局ã€?/FONT>
    煤电(sh¨´)博弈 事关癑֧“
    ç…?SPAN lang=EN-US>—â€?/SPAN>ç”?SPAN lang=EN-US>—â€?/SPAN>市民支出åQŒè¿™æ˜¯ä¸€æ¡æœ€ç›´æŽ¥ä¸è¿‡çš„社ä¼?x¨¬)链条，而在煤炭ä»äh ¼çš„市场化˜q›å…¥å®žè´¨˜qè¡Œä¹‹åŽåQŒç”µ(sh¨´)力ä­h(hu¨¢n)格最后肯定涉å?qi¨¢ng)市民的èŠÞp´¹åQŒå› æ­¤ï¼Œç…¤ç”µ(sh¨´)博弈åQŒæ— è®ºæˆè´¥ï¼Œæœ€åŽå¯èƒ½éƒ½ä¼?x¨¬)æ‡Lå?qi¨¢ng)到癑֧“生活ã€?/FONT>
    据相关专家分析，一斚w¢åQŒç…¤ç‚­ä½œä¸ÞZ¸å¯å†ç”Ÿèµ„源，的确应该实现其真实ä­h(hu¨¢n)å€û|¼Œè€Œæœ¬çœåˆæ˜¯ç…¤ç‚­å¤§çœï¼Œå¦‚果涨ä­h(hu¨¢n)åQŒå¿…然会(x¨¬)促进产业利润的增加；而在另一斚w¢åQŒç…¤ä»·ä¸Šæ¶¨ï¼Œç”?sh¨´)ä­h(hu¨¢n)ä¼?x¨¬)不会(x¨¬)涨åQŸç”µ(sh¨´)力企业说â€?/SPAN>煤贵â€?/SPAN>已不是一天两天，如果ä»äh ¼å†æ¶¨åQŒç”µ(sh¨´)力企业更ä¼?x¨¬)以煤ç”?sh¨´)ä»äh ¼å·®äØ“(f¨´)由，要求ç”?sh¨´)ä­h(hu¨¢n)上涨åQ?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>计划ç”?sh¨´)ä­h(hu¨¢n)â€?/SPAN>机制也将受到挑战。而一旦实现所谓的煤电(sh¨´)ä»äh ¼è”动åQŒé‚£ä¹ˆï¼Œç”?sh¨´)ä­h(hu¨¢n)上涨åQŒä¹Ÿè®¸å°±æ˜¯æˆ‘们不得不面对的一个问题ã€?/FONT>
    在采访中åQŒä¸€äº›å¸‚民也向通讯员表½Cºï¼Œâ€?/SPAN>市场åŒ?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>对于煤电(sh¨´)双方来说åQŒå¯èƒ½ä»…是行业之间的利益分配问题åQŒè€Œå¯¹äºŽå¸‚民，更关心的是电(sh¨´)力企业是否会(x¨¬)借煤价上涨而调整电(sh¨´)ä»—÷€‚如何在保证煤炭行业健康发展的同æ—Óž¼Œèƒ½å¤Ÿåˆ‡å®žé™ä½Žç”?sh¨´)力企业的运营成本、压¾~©ä¸å¿…要的开支，ž®†æˆä¸ºå…³¾pÕdˆ°åƒå®¶ä¸‡æˆ·çš„大事。因此，在分析煤ç”?sh¨´)博弈问题时åQŒé™¤äº†æ¶¨ä¸Žä¸æ¶¨ä¹‹å¤–，我们更应该关注的是，建立行之有效的电(sh¨´)力生产成本控制和市场引导机制åQŒåˆ«è®©ç™¾å§“äØ“(f¨´)ç…¤ä­h(hu¨¢n)的市场化波动â€?/SPAN>埋单â€?/SPAN>ã€?SPAN lang=EN-US>

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