?!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd"> 摩根大通对中国燃煤业的分析-煤炭资讯|?/TITLE><LINK href="/css/wh.css" type=text/css rel=stylesheet> <META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=gb2312"> <META content=煤炭|?name=Author> <META content="Copyright 2004-2005 煤炭资讯|所? name=Copyright> <META content="煤矿,煤矿|?煤炭|?清R?光电(sh)型全自动矿用清R?二手讑֤,煤炭供求,煤矿机电(sh)讑֤,煤矿新闻,煤矿人才,煤业技?校友?煤h(hun)旬报,技术论?襉K煤炭|?国际能源|?全球能源|?世界能源|?国家能源|?国际煤炭|?国际?sh)力|?国际xa(b)|?国际天然气网,国际新能源网,国际能源投融资网,能源U技,能源人物,能源要闻,能源安全,能源情报,能源危机,能源市场,能源企业,能源黄页,能源l计,能源专家,能源|聚世界能源资讯,服务全球能源企业" name=keywords> <META content="煤炭资讯|? name=description> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-transform" /> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-siteapp" /> <script>var V_PATH="/";window.onerror=function(){ return true; };</script> </head> <body> <h1><a href="http://www.ducatiukracing.com/">免费人成年激情视频在线观看,国产精品,精品一级影院在线播放,真实强奷在线中文</a></h1> <div 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solid"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=10 width=955 border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD align=middle colSpan=2> <H3></H3></TD></TR> <TR> <TD align=middle colSpan=2> <H2>摩根大通对中国燃煤业的分析</H2></TD></TR> <TR> <TD align=middle colSpan=2> <H3></H3></TD></TR> <TR> <TD align=right width=346><A href="http://www.ducatiukracing.com/" target=_blank>煤炭资讯|?/A></TD> <TD width=382>2006-12-13 9:01:17    <A href="http://www.ducatiukracing.com/MroeNews.aspx">煤市分析</A></TD></TR> <TR> <TD colSpan=2 class="newsContent"> <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" > <HTML> <HEAD> <meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html;charset=gb2312" /> <title>摩根大通对中国燃煤业的分析

摩根大通对中国燃煤业的分析


06--12--13

现货煤h(hun)创新高,摩根预期2007q中国煤价再度保持^EI调高中国华集团股h(hun)?SPAN lang=EN-US> 

摩根大通近期发布中国燃煤行业分析报告,要点如下Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>

一Q煤价强势增长:(x)据摩栚w期,最q几周内煤h(hun)强势增长?/SPAN>中国现货煤h(hun)创新高,澛_利亚现货煤h(hun)也迅速重整旗鼓。摩栚w?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q热煤h(hun)格将l箋保持强势。摩根对华能源寄予很高预期?SPAN lang=EN-US>

二.现货h大增Q有可能?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q保持强势增长:(x)中国现货煤h(hun)格创新高Q澳大利亚现货煤h?SPAN lang=EN-US>2006q?SPAN lang=EN-US>11?SPAN lang=EN-US>28日星期二增长了将q?SPAN lang=EN-US>12%Q因为北半球燃煤公司为冬季的到来加紧了煤的储备。摩栚w期中国煤价于2007q再度保持^EI齐^历史h水^U,主要上行风险有小型煤矿关闭、新煤矿开发成本的提高Q以?qing)运输的瓉?SPAN lang=EN-US> 

 三.股h(hun)的驱动力Q?/SPAN>管面对强势的现货h(hun)|摩根认ؓ(f)华已稳步将合同hq一步调高了5%?SPAN lang=EN-US>10%。神华集团可能于2007q上半年宣布另一ƈ购案Q从而增加其资?SPAN lang=EN-US>

四.目标h、估值及(qing)主要风险Q?/SPAN>摩根神华集?SPAN lang=EN-US>2006财年预计的每股收益降低了3%Q但?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007财年以及(qing)2008财年的每股收益预期不变。基于能的增加Q摩根将华Z贴现现金计的股h(hun)预期提高?SPAN lang=EN-US>5%Q但保持其对2007q目标h(hun)格每?SPAN lang=EN-US>19港元的预计(贴现现金估?SPAN lang=EN-US>27%的溢P。目标h(hun)格的主要风险来自于比摩根预期q低的煤仗?SPAN lang=EN-US> 

摩根神华集?SPAN lang=EN-US>2006财年预计的每股收益降?SPAN lang=EN-US>3%x?SPAN lang=EN-US>1.03元h民币。但?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007财年以及(qing)2008财年的每股收益预期不变。基于高于预期的产能增长Q摩根调高了对脓(chung)现现金流的估P?SPAN lang=EN-US>14.3港元上升?SPAN lang=EN-US>14.65港元Q虽然这部分上涨被高于预期的煤矿资本投入所抉|。h民币的增g为收益的提高带来了正面的影响。根据这些调?SPAN lang=EN-US>, 煤炭业有可能占M业h(hun)值的22%, 在以往预计?SPAN lang=EN-US>15%上增?SPAN lang=EN-US>7个百分点.摩根现在每股19港元的估h味着出贴现现金估?SPAN lang=EN-US>27%的溢仗摩根认为,q点可由q购所带来的h(hun)g以证?SPAN lang=EN-US> ?? 摩根估计q购能带来每?SPAN lang=EN-US>2.8港元的收益。摩栚w计ƈ购的h上涨?SPAN lang=EN-US>50%从每?SPAN lang=EN-US>6.7元h民币上升到每?SPAN lang=EN-US>10元h民币Q也反映了成本投入的增高?SPAN lang=EN-US> 

 摩根预期的每?SPAN lang=EN-US>19港元的目标h(hun)格意味着仅有过贴现现金估值加上ƈ购所?SPAN lang=EN-US>7%的溢仗?SPAN lang=EN-US> 

五.中国煤市场:(x)现货h在中国创历史新高 

中国热煤现货hq几个月内强势增长,?SPAN lang=EN-US>2006q?SPAN lang=EN-US>9月䆾的低谷h(hun)上涨?SPAN lang=EN-US>9%。主要原因是Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>1Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>2006q第四季度显季节性增长强势;Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>2Q摩根对12月䆾水利能源使用的预期降臌底;Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>3Q在未来几个月内Q中国煤q口量显出降势;Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>4Q小型煤矿关闭l给煤的供应加重负担?SPAN lang=EN-US> 

澛_利亚动力煤市场(NEWCQ在星期二指出,ZdhQ?SPAN lang=EN-US>FOBQ进入澳大利亚纽卡素门户Q煤的h(hun)g一周前升至50.80元Q上涨了5.56元。北半球燃煤公司为冬季的到来加紧了煤的储备?SPAN lang=EN-US> 

六.?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q的展望 

而言之,摩根预期中国热煤的h(hun)格将?SPAN lang=EN-US>?/SPAN>长期强势?/SPAN>。摩栚w期,2007q热煤的基准hQ山西煤L(fng)合)再一ơ保持在历史h的水q线上,直到2008q会(x)出现d下滑?SPAN lang=EN-US>

热煤h?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q看涨的主要原因有:(x)型煤矿的不断关闭;政府Ҏ(gu)煤矿开发的严格控制Q新煤矿开发的成本投入增高Q需求增长强势回式V?SPAN lang=EN-US> 

七.型煤矿的关?SPAN lang=EN-US> 

 在以往的分析中Q摩根已多次了小型煤矿的关闭。摩根仍认ؓ(f)政府?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q将l箋关闭型煤矿?SPAN lang=EN-US>

型煤矿的关闭将对中国的煤品生巨大的影响。根据神华的理层介l,?SPAN lang=EN-US>2010q?SPAN lang=EN-US>70%的小型煤矿将被关闭。假设从2005q到2010q对煤的需求的复合q均增长率(GAGRQؓ(f)8%Q这意味着大型和中型煤矿煤产品的复合年均增长率必须?SPAN lang=EN-US>17%。摩根认为,辑ֈq个增长率存在难度。摩栚w期,华q家中国最大的煤矿企业Q具备了强大的胦(ch)政实力以?qing)最大的煤储备量Q从2005q到2010q煤产品的复合年均增长率仅?SPAN lang=EN-US>11%?SPAN lang=EN-US> 

八.高成?/SPAN> 

  中国q期开始向新煤矿收取加盟费用。国外的加盟费用为每?SPAN lang=EN-US>3元。然而,直到最q,中国的煤公司只支付很的费用来ƈ购煤ѝ现在的市场h大约为矿产资源量每吨7元h民币Q储备量每吨14元h民币Q澳大利亚矿产资源量Q储量计和地质报告~写指南Q。加盟费用只用于煤矿的新q购。因而,现有煤矿相比新煤矿具有成本降低每吨储备量14元h民币的优势,相当于港口煤销售现L(fng)3.5%以及(qing)大约7%的矿口销售现仗?SPAN lang=EN-US>

此外Q还有其他的成本费用 ?? 额外的成本费用可能达到每?SPAN lang=EN-US>40元h民币?SPAN lang=EN-US>70元h民币Q尤其是对小型煤矿而言Q包含了环境保护费用、安全费用以?qing)煤生地区的|贴补助。每?SPAN lang=EN-US>40元h民币?SPAN lang=EN-US>70元h民币的成本费用可能逐渐增加到L本当中。亏损的是型煤矿企业Q他们ƈ没有把这些成本费用考虑C品成本费用中来。赢利的是大型的煤矿企业,比如华Q其在此斚w做得较完善,因此额外的成本费用则更小。增高的成本费用提升整个煤矿行业的成本费用以及(qing)现货煤的h?SPAN lang=EN-US>

 ?ji).动能和其他需?SPAN lang=EN-US> 

伴随着中国l济的放~,摩根预期煤需求量也在减少。然而,煤需求的增长臛_可能?SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP的增长持q뀂这意味着相比2007q和2008q?SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP9%?SPAN lang=EN-US>10%的增长,煤需求量可能增?SPAN lang=EN-US>8%?SPAN lang=EN-US>10%?SPAN lang=EN-US>

 十.?SPAN lang=EN-US>2008q的展望 

摩根认ؓ(f)现货热煤的h(hun)格可能下滑,随着曹妃甸港口的竣工以及(qing)曹妃甸至大秦铁\的开通,q输瓉于2008q有所d的缓和。如果曹妃甸港口?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q底竣工Q煤的年产能增长到5000万吨?SPAN lang=EN-US>

 十一.对今q所发生的事情的回顾 

水力能源的用明昑֏到季节性约束。夏季ؓ(f)使用高峰期冬季则Z用低h。根据摩栚w期,中国的煤q口量在q几个月里表现^qI?SPAN lang=EN-US>2006q上半年有所下降。主要原因是地区间的h差及(qing)中国的h(hun)格差~小了。中国的煤d存量在近几个月内q无明显动。秦皇岛港口的煤储存量由2006q初的高峰时期下降,辑ֈ了稳固的水^?SPAN lang=EN-US>

 中国煤量适度增长 

中国煤量在q几个月内表现^q?SPAN lang=EN-US>2006q头10个月内,产量q比增长11.3%。然而,摩根认ؓ(f)产量的实际增长比率更。摩根猜,煤量在2005q?SPAN lang=EN-US>1月䆾?SPAN lang=EN-US>11月䆾被低估?SPAN lang=EN-US> 

 



     ~?辑:(x)q帆


     ~?辑:(x)q帆
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