?!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd"> 煤电(sh)对峙的真正危险在哪里-煤炭资讯|?/TITLE><LINK href="/css/wh.css" type=text/css rel=stylesheet> <META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=gb2312"> <META content=煤炭|?name=Author> <META content="Copyright 2004-2005 煤炭资讯|所? name=Copyright> <META content="煤矿,煤矿|?煤炭|?清R?光电(sh)型全自动矿用清R?二手讑֤,煤炭供求,煤矿机电(sh)讑֤,煤矿新闻,煤矿人才,煤业技?校友?煤h(hun)旬报,技术论?襉K煤炭|?国际能源|?全球能源|?世界能源|?国家能源|?国际煤炭|?国际?sh)力|?国际xa|?国际天然气网,国际新能源网,国际能源投融资网,能源U技,能源人物,能源要闻,能源安全,能源情报,能源危机,能源市场,能源企业,能源黄页,能源l计,能源专家,能源|聚世界能源资讯,服务全球能源企业" name=keywords> <META content="煤炭资讯|? name=description> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-transform" /> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-siteapp" /> <script>var V_PATH="/";window.onerror=function(){ return true; };</script> </head> <body> <h1><a href="http://www.ducatiukracing.com/">免费人成年激情视频在线观看,国产精品,精品一级影院在线播放,真实强奷在线中文</a></h1> <div 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<H3></H3></TD></TR> <TR> <TD align=right width=346><A href="http://www.ducatiukracing.com/" target=_blank>煤炭资讯|?/A></TD> <TD width=382>2006-2-14 12:43:10    <A href="http://www.ducatiukracing.com/MroeNews.aspx">煤市分析</A></TD></TR> <TR> <TD colSpan=2 class="newsContent"> <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" > <HTML> <HEAD> <meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html;charset=gb2312" /> <title>煤电(sh)对峙的真正危险在哪里

煤电(sh)对峙的真正危险在哪里


06--2--14

U种q象表明Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>2月䆾Q中国煤、电(sh)两大阵营围绕?/SPAN>늅?/SPAN>h的博弈,又将q入白热化。而此前一直力?SPAN lang=EN-US>?/SPAN>淡出?/SPAN>双方争战的发改委Q也不得不再ơ介入煤、电(sh)之战?/FONT>
   
其实Q这U结果是必然的?/FONT>
   
煤、电(sh)对峙在陷入僵局的同Ӟ也把发改委逼入两难困境。春节后Q发改委联合铁道部、交通部下发通知Q要求尚未签订重点合同的煤、电(sh)企业Q必M2月底前完成全q电(sh)煤合同和q输合同的签订Q务。同时给双方施加压力Q以q双方各自让步Q结束对峙状态?/FONT>
   
但是Q在目前情况下,q个通知能v多大作用q很难说Q假如煤、电(sh)双方拒不让步Q发改委作何选择Q随之,再次实施煤电(sh)联动的消息传出。据报道Q国家发改委日前在已上报国务院的《关于进一步做?SPAN lang=EN-US>2006
q全国重点煤炭q需衔接工作的请C》中Q明提?/SPAN>l箋实行煤电(sh)h联动政策?/SPAN>。煤?sh)二ơ联动的可能性看h非常大?/FONT>
   
煤电(sh)二次联动Q意味着火电(sh)h可以适当调高Q以安抚火电(sh)行业。同Ӟ相对于强压煤、电(sh)低头Q将一部分成本转移到公众n上,在操作性上昑־更容易一些。因为相对于煤、电(sh)两大行业Q公众利益的代言人,在某U程度上而言是缺位的?/FONT>
   
但是Q应该看来,煤电(sh)联动虽然可解燃眉之急,却有可能问题拖入一个更q泥沼之中Q试?SPAN lang=EN-US>?/SPAN>淡出?/SPAN>的发改委也将愈陷愈深难以自拔?/FONT>
   
首先Q煤炭h(hun)gZU日渐枯竭性资源,其h(hun)g涨乃大势所。中国的煤炭储备非常有限Q英国石油公司的数据昄Q中国拥?SPAN lang=EN-US>1145
亿吨煤炭储备Q占全球d备的12.6%。目前中国统计的已开发量差不多已经辑ֈ22亿吨。如果消贚w?SPAN lang=EN-US>3%
的速度递增Q煤炭开采成品率?SPAN lang=EN-US>60%
Q那么中国的煤炭储备在20q后枯竭?/FONT>
   
q就意味着Q随着旉的推U,煤炭h上涨的动力将来强Q发改委强压늅h下调Q以满火电(sh)需求的压力和难度也越来越大?/FONT>
   
其次Q火甉|面着?sh)力q剩的威胁。最q几q的?sh)力供应短缺Q引发了大投资,各地无序圈地?sh)厂Q导致电(sh)力生产以前所未有的速度扩张。据估计Q电(sh)力装机容量将?SPAN lang=EN-US>2002
q底?SPAN lang=EN-US>3.6
亿千瓦提高到2007q底?SPAN lang=EN-US>7.2亿千瓦,五年内增?SPAN lang=EN-US>1倍。亚z开发银行能源经学家林伯强认ؓQ即使假定这两年没有大量新批目Q同时电(sh)力需求仍按每q约13%的高速增长,?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q底估计装机定wq剩仍可?SPAN lang=EN-US>10%?/FONT>
   
?sh)力q剩意味着?sh)h(hun)必然下调。在目前?sh)力且紧缺的情况下Q火?sh)行业尚且寄希望于依靠行政力量压低?sh)煤h(hun)|那么Q在来?sh)h(hun)下降的情况下Q发改委q能指望L抽n吗?
   
而且Q在目前情况下,即?sh)h(hun)上调Q真正受益的也应该是水电(sh)行业而非火电(sh)行业Q因为,虽然水电(sh)的徏设成本高于火?sh),但其q行成本却远q低于火?sh)企业。数据显C,当前Q水?sh)^均运营成本ؓ0.04Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>0.09元/千瓦Ӟ而火?sh)则高?SPAN lang=EN-US>0.19元/千瓦时左叟뀂水?sh)行业受益的l果是,其竞争力q一步提高,火电(sh)行业生存压力更大?/FONT>
   
因此Q眼下的当务之急是Q选择一个合适的ZQ将煤、电(sh)推向市场Q让企业接受市场的洗C|在市Z扑ֈ生存和发展之路,毕竟Q在适应市场斚wQ企业比行政部门有更高的(zhn)性和更快的适应能力?/FONT>
   
在目前情况下Qh们普遍担心将?sh)力推向市场可能D?sh)h(hun)上涨Q引发社会风险。这U担忧是可以理解的。因为,在电(sh)力过剩的拐点刚出现朦胧迹象,未真正呈现在h们面前的时候,q快地将之推向市场,有可能引发大的风险。但同时Q也应该认识刎ͼ如果{到?sh)力q剩问题完全呈现Q电(sh)h显下调的时候,再将火电(sh)推向市场Q同h有风险的Q因为,没有一个缓冲期Q无疑将把火?sh)行业置于危险境地?/FONT>
   
W者认为,发改委应权衡各方因素Q找C个合适的区间Q然后,火?sh)行?SPAN lang=EN-US>?/SPAN>攄?/SPAN>Q让其慢慢适应市场。这既有利于火电(sh)行业的发展,也利于发改委从容抽n?SPAN lang=EN-US>

来源Q上券报

中国襉K煤炭|?nbsp; ?nbsp; ?SPAN lang=EN-US>

 



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