?!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd"> 2007q四季度煤炭行业投资{略分析-煤炭资讯|?/TITLE><LINK href="/css/wh.css" type=text/css rel=stylesheet> <META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=gb2312"> <META content=煤炭|?name=Author> <META content="Copyright 2004-2005 煤炭资讯|所? name=Copyright> <META content="煤矿,煤矿|?煤炭|?清R?光电(sh)型全自动矿用清R?二手讑֤,煤炭供求,煤矿机电(sh)讑֤,煤矿新闻,煤矿人才,煤业技?校友?煤h(hun)旬报,技术论?襉K煤炭|?国际能源|?全球能源|?世界能源|?国家能源|?国际煤炭|?国际?sh)力|?国际xa(b)|?国际天然气网,国际新能源网,国际能源投融资网,能源U技,能源人物,能源要闻,能源安全,能源情报,能源危机,能源市场,能源企业,能源黄页,能源l计,能源专家,能源|聚世界能源资讯,服务全球能源企业" name=keywords> <META content="煤炭资讯|? name=description> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-transform" /> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-siteapp" /> <script>var V_PATH="/";window.onerror=function(){ return true; };</script> </head> <body> <h1><a href="http://www.ducatiukracing.com/">免费人成年激情视频在线观看,国产精品,精品一级影院在线播放,真实强奷在线中文</a></h1> <div 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<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" > <HTML> <HEAD> <meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html;charset=gb2312" /> <title>2007q四季度煤炭行业投资{略分析

2007q四季度煤炭行业投资{略分析


07--11--23

行业景气上升煤炭h走势保持强劲

我们认ؓ(f)Q煤炭行业景气度处于恢复性上升通道?SPAN lang=EN-US>07q全国煤炭供需仍将保持基本qQ?SPAN lang=EN-US>07q煤炭上市企业的净利增长将主要源于产能扩张和量提升。从1?月䆾数据来看Q此观点基本得到验证?SPAN lang=EN-US>

?SPAN lang=EN-US>8个月Q煤炭量增速低于销量增速,供需基本qQ下游行业量增速略为放~在预期之中Q但不改全年煤炭需求的增长势Q社?x)库存处于合理水qI管07q半q报昄Q上市公司的行业q_毛利率略Z降,但预计下半年煤h(hun)l箋上涨之后可基本抵消开采成本的增加Q全q毛利率有望有所恢复。给予煤炭行?SPAN lang=EN-US>?/SPAN>推荐?/SPAN>的投资评U?SPAN lang=EN-US>

行业景气逐渐恢复

2007q?SPAN lang=EN-US>1?月䆾全国煤炭产销两旺Q国家安监d的统计数据显C,?SPAN lang=EN-US>8个月Q全国煤炭工业原煤量ؓ(f)15.09亿吨Q同比增长了8.03%Q比d同期低了0.34个百分点?SPAN lang=EN-US>

同期全国煤炭总销量ؓ(f)1.49亿吨Q同比增?SPAN lang=EN-US>10.3%Q比d同期高出?SPAN lang=EN-US>2.3个百分点Q其中国有重点煤炭企业总销量增长率?SPAN lang=EN-US>14.3%Q高Z全国q_水^4个百分点。煤炭销量增速略高于产量增速,预示着07q全q煤炭供求依然保持基本^衡?SPAN lang=EN-US>

同时Q主要下游行业量增速同比略Z降?SPAN lang=EN-US>1?月䆾Q煤炭主要下游行业的产量依然保持了较高增镉K度Q与d同期相比Q增速略为放~。其中,火电(sh)、生铁和水惔的量增速分别ؓ(f)17.5%?SPAN lang=EN-US>16.3%?SPAN lang=EN-US>15%Q同比下降幅度略大些Q而粗钢和ȝ产量增速基本与d同期持^。与d全年相比较,占煤炭需求近半数的火?sh)行业增速依焉?SPAN lang=EN-US>06q全q增速?SPAN lang=EN-US>

主要下游行业的量增速放~在预期之中Q且增速依焉于我们前期对q些行业07q全q所作的增速预,因此Q依然保持对四季度以?SPAN lang=EN-US>07q全q下游行业煤炭需求增速的乐观预测?SPAN lang=EN-US>

C会(x)库存处于合理水^?SPAN lang=EN-US>8月底Q全国煤炭社?x)库存?f)1.58亿吨Q与前两个月基本保持一_(d)比去q同期增?SPAN lang=EN-US>6%Q低于量增速。其中,港口库存环比下降?SPAN lang=EN-US>4.2%Q而煤矿企业库存略Z升了1.3%Q直供电(sh)厂库存与6?SPAN lang=EN-US>7两个月水q_本一致。M来说Q社?x)库存相当于同期全?SPAN lang=EN-US>23.7天的煤炭消费量,属于合理库存水^。而港口库存的下降对近期煤炭h(hun)格的上涨产生了一定的刺激作用?SPAN lang=EN-US>

产量增长或将提高净利润

我们认ؓ(f)Q煤炭行业^均毛利率可能略下降。从2007q半q报来看Q除了煤气化、西q?sh)和金牛能源{三家企业由于煤炭或焦炭h增长q度高于成本增幅使得其毛利率同比上升之外Q其他企业的毛利率均低于2006q同期水q뀂煤炭上市公司的行业q_毛利率从2006q中期的37.13%下滑?SPAN lang=EN-US>07q中期的32.55%Q下降了4.6个百分点?SPAN lang=EN-US>

毛利率普遍下降的主要原因是上半年主要煤炭企业的煤炭开采成本增q显著,包括p省自3月䆾开始征收的煤炭可持l发展基金,以及(qing)企业人均雇员工资和福利、原材料h{因素的增长较快Q而同期煤炭h(hun)格增速在5?3%Q略低于成本增速?SPAN lang=EN-US>

我们认ؓ(f)Q量增长将是净利润提升的主要因素?SPAN lang=EN-US>

管大部分上市企业毛利率有所下降Q但除国x能和兖州煤业之外Q其他企业的净利润均同比出现增ѝ其中煤气化增幅最高,辑ֈ304%Q主要原因是焦炭h同比增长显著。而神火股份、开滦股份、金牛能源等公司利润同比增幅也超q?SPAN lang=EN-US>20%Q神火股份的增长除受益于煤h(hun)上涨外,更主要原因是q表了新收购的铝业公司?SPAN lang=EN-US>

其他企业净利润的增长则主要来自于煤炭或相关业务产量的增ѝ煤炭上市公司的行业q_净利润增长率ؓ(f)7.1%Q与行业q_主营收入29.6%的增长率相比Q低了许多?SPAN lang=EN-US>

我们预计Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>07q全q的毛利率将有所恢复Q利润增长将主要来自于能扩张。我们认为,上半q煤炭上市企业毛利率下降的主要原因,是企业h员工资和政策性成本等费用的增加导致煤炭开采成本增q高于煤hq。尽不排除四季度政{性成本仍然存在增加的可能Q如资源E的上调Q以?qing)山西省l箋推行煤矿环境恢复ȝ保证金、煤矿{产基金等政策的试点,但h员工资的增加短期内不h可持l性,因此预计下半q煤炭开采成本的增长较ؓ(f)温和?SPAN lang=EN-US>

而我们对下半q的煤h(hun)走势保持乐观Q预计全q综合来看,煤炭开采成本增q中的大部分会(x)通过上涨的煤价予以消化,全年的毛利率有所恢复。我们认为,2007q煤炭上市企业的利润增长主要来自于能扩张和产量提升?SPAN lang=EN-US>

煤炭h势头走强

三季度末、四季度初国内煤L(fng)U上扬,动力煤l反式V?SPAN lang=EN-US>07q以来,国内动力煤市场出现先扬后抑的走势Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>1月䆾辑ֈq期高点之后开始下滑,?SPAN lang=EN-US>5月䆾走稳q开始反弹,一直持l到三季度末?SPAN lang=EN-US>10月中旬,p大同6000大卡的动力煤不含E坑口h(hun)q_比上月上涨了10?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨,辑ֈ255?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨,距离前期高点仅一步之遥。而中转地U皇岛港10月䆾的大同优混^仓h(hun)q_比上月上涨了10?5?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨,辑ֈ525?35?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨,创出了历史新高?SPAN lang=EN-US>

管目前动力煤h(hun)g1月䆾的高点还有一定的差距Q但随着四季度供暖用煤需求的来(f)Q预计四季度动力煤依然将l持幅上涨的趋ѝ此外,管市场普遍认ؓ(f)׃CPI的媄(jing)响,q内在全国范围内实施煤电(sh)联动的可能性不大,但由于自2006q?SPAN lang=EN-US>6月的W二ơ煤?sh)联动实施以来,动力煤h(hun)g涨幅度达10%强,已经过了煤?sh)联动的触发条g。因此,我们认ؓ(f)Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>2008q实施第三次全国范围内的煤电(sh)联动q是很有可能的,对四季度?SPAN lang=EN-US>08q的动力煤h(hun)g然维持乐观态度?SPAN lang=EN-US>

焦煤开始新一轮上涨、无烟煤恢复性上涨。年初由于受焦煤资源E从2?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨上调到8?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨的影响Q国内焦煤h(hun)格在2月䆾?SPAN lang=EN-US>4?SPAN lang=EN-US>5月䆾之间l历了一番快速上涨?SPAN lang=EN-US>9月䆾Q西q?sh)开始提高对部分客户的焦煤售P全国焦煤掀h一轮涨势,xȝ煤从8月䆾?SPAN lang=EN-US>460?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨上涨到10月䆾?SPAN lang=EN-US>520?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨,涨幅?SPAN lang=EN-US>13%。由于国内焦炭量保持较快增长,焦煤作ؓ(f)国内最为稀~的煤种预计四季度将保持高位q行Qƈ有可能再ơ小q上涨。而无烟煤在经历了6?SPAN lang=EN-US>7月䆾的调整之后,q期h也开始上涨。河南永城地区无烟煤车板含税价从9月䆾?SPAN lang=EN-US>460?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨上涨到9月䆾中旬?SPAN lang=EN-US>497?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨,涨幅?SPAN lang=EN-US>8%Q山襉K泉地区无烟煤涨幅略小些,Uؓ(f)3?%?SPAN lang=EN-US>

焦炭hq初以来涨幅显著。由于焦煤h(hun)格的上涨Q全国焦炭h(hun)D期也开始上调,p太原地区二冉焦h(hun)g9月䆾?SPAN lang=EN-US>1280?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨上涨到10月中旬的1300?350?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨,增幅最为显著,自年初以来,太原焦炭h累计上涨?SPAN lang=EN-US>42%?/SPAN>

10月䆾Q河北唐山地区冶金焦h也上涨了30?0?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨,辑ֈ1400?450?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨,q初以来涨幅辑ֈ?SPAN lang=EN-US>28%。尽国家自6?SPAN lang=EN-US>1?/st1:chsdate>起将焦炭出口关税?SPAN lang=EN-US>5%上调?SPAN lang=EN-US>15%Q但出口h持箋上涨Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>7月䆾中国焦炭出口q_FOBh?SPAN lang=EN-US>199元/吨,?SPAN lang=EN-US>5月䆾上涨?SPAN lang=EN-US>15%Q出口关E税率上?SPAN lang=EN-US>10%的新增出口成本基本已被消化了?SPAN lang=EN-US>

E~性凸显资源h(hun)?/SPAN>

我国煤炭储备与量在全球占比的不匚w性,以及(qing)煤炭资源的消贚w增长和开采过E中的巨大浪费得煤炭作ZU战略性能源资源越来越得到国家的重视,煤炭资源有偿使用制度的改革政{将引发对上市公司现有资源的价值重伎ͼ可以参考有关省市对采矿权最低{让h(hun)格来评估企业的资源h(hun)倹{资源h(hun)值重估潜力最大的是潞安环能、西qc(din)国x能和兰花U创{具有煤U优势或每股资源储备丰富的企业?SPAN lang=EN-US>

首先Q我国煤炭储备与产量在全球占比的不匹配性更显资源的珍贵。美国能源情报v?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007国际能源展望》中的统计数据显C,截至2006q_(d)全球煤炭可采储备Uؓ(f)1万亿吨,其中国?SPAN lang=EN-US>2707亿吨的储量居于首位,占据全球?SPAN lang=EN-US>27%Q而中国的储量?SPAN lang=EN-US>1262亿吨Q只占全?SPAN lang=EN-US>12.6%?SPAN lang=EN-US>

但从产量来看Q近q来中国煤炭产量一直遥遥领先于其他国家?SPAN lang=EN-US>2006q_(d)中国煤炭产量?SPAN lang=EN-US>24.3亿吨占据了全球M量的39.2%Q比可采储备占比高出?SPAN lang=EN-US>26.6个百分点。由于未来几十年内,煤炭仍将是中国最主要的能源来源,且中国经在未来几年内还保持高速增长,煤炭需求依然强Ԍq种储量与量占比的不匹配现象还l维持,甚至扩大。因此,相对于其他煤炭资源丰富的国家来说Q中国的煤炭更应得到重视和珍惜?SPAN lang=EN-US>

其次Q资源的E~性引发国内对煤炭资源的重视程度提升。煤炭资源有偿用制度改革试点开始从国家对煤炭探矿权和采矿权的政{变化,可以看出我国对煤炭作ZU战略性能源资源的重视E度在不断提升?SPAN lang=EN-US>

2006q?SPAN lang=EN-US>9月国务院批复了胦攉K、国土资源部、发展改革委联合发出的《关于深化煤炭资源有偿用制度改革试点的实施Ҏ(gu)》,前期定的试点范围ؓ(f)p、内蒙古、黑龙江、安徽、山东、河南、贵州、陕西等8个煤炭主产省Q区Q。国家出台这一政策的目的之一是保护煤炭资源、防止滥采浪费,其二是煤炭作ؓ(f)能源消费品的成本完全化、促q煤炭h(hun)格充分体现资源的价倹{我们预计,煤炭矿业权h(hun)格将随资源稀~程度的增加而呈上涨势?SPAN lang=EN-US>

目前国家q未公布全国l一的煤炭探矿权和采矿权h征收标准Q各试点省䆾、地行设定标准。从已公布的p省和内蒙古等地来看,焦煤、无烟煤{稀~性煤U的矿业权h(hun)D高于褐煤、长焰煤{动力煤。目前我国煤炭上市企业控制的煤炭可采储量Uؓ(f)250多亿吨,占全国d采储量(?SPAN lang=EN-US>EIA公布的数据)?SPAN lang=EN-US>20%Q若考虑非上市煤炭企业以?qing)上市企业的母公司等企业控制的煤炭可采储量估计?f)全国d采储量的一半以上。因此,可供企业通过招标、拍卖等市场竞争方式获取矿业权的煤炭资源是有限的。可以预计,随着煤炭资源的稀~性增加,我国煤炭矿业权h(hun)格将保持上涨的趋ѝ?SPAN lang=EN-US>

现阶D,我国对煤炭业的政策d调是?/SPAN>大集团、大基地?/SPAN>?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q?SPAN lang=EN-US>1月国家发改委发布的《煤炭工业发?SPAN lang=EN-US>?/SPAN>十一?SPAN lang=EN-US>?/SPAN>规划》中明确提出Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>?/SPAN>十一?SPAN lang=EN-US>?/SPAN>期间Q我国煤炭发展以?/SPAN>整合Z、新Zؓ(f)?SPAN lang=EN-US>?/SPAN>QŞ?SPAN lang=EN-US>6?个亿吨?SPAN lang=EN-US>8?0?SPAN lang=EN-US>5000万吨U大型煤炭企业集团,煤炭产量占全国的50%以上?/SPAN>

从国内各大集团的煤炭产量来看Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>2006q我国只有神华集团、中煤能源集团、山西焦煤集团和黑龙江龙煤矿业集?SPAN lang=EN-US>4大集团的产量过5000万吨。加上大同煤矉K团的前五大煤炭集?SPAN lang=EN-US>06qM量ؓ(f)4.51亿吨Q占全国M量的18.6%Q与国家所定的50%的目标还有较大的距离。因此,未来几年国内煤炭产业在政策推动下加快整合步伐。相对于上市公司现有资源储备和能来_(d)大股东还剩余的资源较丰富、能较大的企业有大同煤业、潞安环能、国x能、露天煤业和恒源煤电(sh){,q些企业值得重点x?SPAN lang=EN-US>

支撑煤h(hun)上涨因素长期E_

三季度末四季度初国内各煤U煤L(fng)U上涨,׃四季度是取暖用煤的需求高峰期Q我们预计煤价上涨的势q将保持。而国际市Z在原油和BJ煤h(hun)均创新高的背景下Q等热值原油与煤炭价差也接q历史高点,按照国能源情报|的预测Q煤炭将是未来二十多q全球不可再生能源中消费增速最快的能源来源Q全球可能进入能源高h代,长期来看Q国内外煤h(hun)q将保持上涨势。我们对四季度和08q国内煤仯势l保持乐观态度?SPAN lang=EN-US>

煤、a(b)价差扩大打开上涨I间

2007q年初以来,国际煤炭h几乎一直保持上涨趋ѝ澳大利?SPAN lang=EN-US>BJ煤炭现货h一?SPAN lang=EN-US>06q小q盘整的格局Q从1月䆾?SPAN lang=EN-US>51元/吨一路上扬到8月中?SPAN lang=EN-US>70多美?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨的高点Q尽?SPAN lang=EN-US>8月下旬略微回落至68元左右后,?SPAN lang=EN-US>10月䆾受石油h(hun)格暴涨的影响Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>BJ现货h上涨?SPAN lang=EN-US>73.4元/吨,创下了历史新高?SPAN lang=EN-US>

8月䆾BJ煤h(hun)冲高的客观原因包括:(x)印度D亚洪水导致其煤炭开采受影响Q以?qing)南非煤炭工人Ş工,而印{南非与澛_利亚同属全球前三大煤炭出口国Q前两个国家的煤炭出口受影响引发澛_利亚出口煤炭供应紧张Q煤价应C涨?SPAN lang=EN-US>

与此同时Q美?SPAN lang=EN-US>9月䆾大幅调低联邦储备利率q进入降息通道预期D元走Y、中东局势再度紧张,以及(qing)国原a(b)库存下降q低于去q同期水qI受此U种因素的媄(jing)响,q期国际原a(b)市场h走势强劲Q纽U原Ҏ(gu)货合Uh(hun)格突破前期高点,创下?SPAN lang=EN-US>88元/桶的历史新高Q大部分国际投行Ҏ(gu)a(b)h来走势持乐观态度。我们预计,今年四季度和明年春季Q欧取暖用油的需求高峰期支撑a(b)L(fng)高位q行?SPAN lang=EN-US>

澛_利亚BJ煤炭热值约?SPAN lang=EN-US>5500大卡/千克Q按国际标准的等热值换,10?SPAN lang=EN-US>11?/st1:chsdate>的h(hun)D,两者差价已辑ֈ101元Q创下了历史高点?SPAN lang=EN-US>

׃煤炭的热D低、以?qing)其直接燃烧对环境的污染E度较重、不易运输等Ҏ(gu),{热值煤炭h(hun)g于原油h(hun)g定数额是合理的。虽然目前全球还没有大规模的商用化煤制a(b)技术,但中国神华、兖矉K团等国内企业煤制油试点工E表明,当达C定的规模Ӟ煤制油的盈亏q点在每桶原a(b)30元左右?SPAN lang=EN-US>

因此我们认ؓ(f)原a(b)Q两Ӟ与煤炭(一吨)的差价在30?0元之间是较为合理的。从历史数据来看Q在1998q至2007q的十年_(d)?SPAN lang=EN-US>6q这一差h(hun)均在50元以下Q从2004q底开始,才逐步扩大?SPAN lang=EN-US>60元以上?SPAN lang=EN-US>

因此Q我们认为,在全球原油h(hun)格高位运行的预期下,煤炭与原油之间的价差应该相应地羃?yu),国际煤炭h依然q有较大的上涨空间?SPAN lang=EN-US>

全球消费l构变化支持煤h(hun)

全球煤炭消费增速将l箋高于能源L费增速。在q去的前10多年_(d)世界l济的发展,特别是新兴市场如?/SPAN>金砖四国?/SPAN>{国家的l济NQ全球能源消费也保持了惊人的增长速度?SPAN lang=EN-US>1995?005q间Q全球能源消耗量增长?SPAN lang=EN-US>26.2%Q年均增速达2.6%Q略低于全球GDP的年均增速。而同期全球煤炭消贚w的增长率辑ֈ?SPAN lang=EN-US>37.6%Q年均增速比全球能源L贚w增速高Z一个百分点?SPAN lang=EN-US>

与此同时Q煤炭在全球能源消费l构中的比重也逐步增加Q到2005q_(d)煤炭所占比重达?SPAN lang=EN-US>25.6%Q比1995q提高了1.3个百分点。煤炭在全球能源消费l构中的比重有望l箋提高Q国际煤价上涨获得支撑。根?SPAN lang=EN-US>2006q的各种能源消耗量Q以?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q初l计的全球不可再生能源储备,可以看出Q相对于煤炭的全球储采比Q石油和天然气的q_储采比要低许多,xa(b)h保持高位q行或l上涨是长期不可避免的趋ѝ如果可再生能源技术在未来的几十年内没有取得重大突_(d)全球q入能源高h(hun)时代亦属必然?SPAN lang=EN-US>

管在近几十q来Q石油和天然气仍是全球能源消费的主要来源,但可以预期,从更q的视角来看Q煤炭在全球能源消费l构中的比重有望l箋提高?SPAN lang=EN-US>

Ҏ(gu)国能源情报|?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q?SPAN lang=EN-US>5月下旬发布的?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007国际能源展望》报告预,从长q看Q国际原油h(hun)格将持箋上涨Q因此未来的二十多年_(d)煤炭是世界上消费增长最快的能源Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>2005?030q的q均增速将辑ֈ2Q。报告认为,?SPAN lang=EN-US>2004Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>2030q_(d)全球煤炭的需求量从2005q的64.8亿吨增长?SPAN lang=EN-US>2030q的82.7亿吨。煤炭在全球能源消费l构中所占的份额Q将?SPAN lang=EN-US>2005q的26.5Q提高到2030q的28.4Q。我们认为,全球煤炭消费比重的增加有望支撑国际煤价保持与原a(b)h同步走高?/SPAN>

 

 



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     ~?辑:(x)q帆
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