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target=_blank>煤炭资讯|?/A></TD> <TD width=382>2007-12-12 9:02:11    <A href="http://www.ducatiukracing.com/MroeNews.aspx">煤市分析</A></TD></TR> <TR> <TD colSpan=2 class="newsContent"> <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" > <HTML> <HEAD> <meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html;charset=gb2312" /> <title>08q煤炭行业研I报?中国未来最具定仯语权

08q煤炭行业研I报?SPAN lang=EN-US>:中国未来最具定仯语权


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07q煤价与行业走势、市Z值比?/SPAN>

作ؓ(f)基础能源的中国煤炭行业,其投资机?x)主要来自行业地位、经运行质量的Ҏ(gu)改善。在宏观l济保持持箋较快发展的背景下Q煤炭已然成Z国能源业利益{U趋势中的受益者,预期未来利润仍可以向上合理{U,未来一D|间煤炭将成ؓ(f)中国唯一具备全球定h(hun)影响力的大宗商品?SPAN lang=EN-US>

U览2007q市玎ͼ煤炭板块收益率远大盘,在煤炭h(hun)格大q上涨、行业景气持l向好的背景下,估值提升成?SPAN lang=EN-US>07q行业发展的L律。基于此Q我们对2008q煤炭行业的基本面趋势仍保持相对乐观的判断及(qing)预期Q相信h(hun)g估、外延增长带来的投资Z(x)仍旧q存Q看涨煤炭h(hun)|其成本上升对2008q煤企利润的侵蚀E度?x)降低;同时煤炭供求关系l维持^Ex局、运?SPAN lang=EN-US>?/SPAN>瓉?/SPAN>可能更明显。给?SPAN lang=EN-US>2008q煤炭行?SPAN lang=EN-US>?/SPAN>增持?/SPAN>的投资评U?SPAN lang=EN-US>

供需Mq

随着2004?SPAN lang=EN-US>2005q冶金行业的高速投资、投产以?qing)钢铁业的l构调整Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>2006?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q焦煤、肥煤、焦炭生了较大的增量需求,预计2008q这个增量趋势仍旧会(x)持箋。自2004qvQ电(sh)力行业持l高速投资、投产,其是火甉|l的装机和发?sh)量l构比重持箋提升Q有效地消化?SPAN lang=EN-US>2004q以来煤炭固定资产投资高增速Ş成的新增产能。实际上Q煤炭行业自2004q开始保持固定资产投资高增速,很大E度上是׃安全设施的增加、洗选环节及(qing)产业铑֚g伸的投资Q实际有效的新增开工能主要集中在大型国有重点煤企Q未来增量释攑ְ?x)更加有序。整体上Q从新增产能的释放、下游增量需求的预期来看Q上下游固定资投资?qing)投产进E的匚w不?x)煤炭新增产能对供求生较大压力,上下游投资?qing)投q程昄了煤炭潜在的供需匚w?SPAN lang=EN-US>

从供求关pȝ重要表征指标库存数据来看Q总量库存、结构库存均昄目前和未?SPAN lang=EN-US>12个月左右的煤炭供求关pd比较q稳?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q?SPAN lang=EN-US>9月底Q全C会(x)煤炭库存?SPAN lang=EN-US>1.62亿吨Q对应单位库存约?SPAN lang=EN-US>660万吨/百万吨消贚wQ折合社?x)消耗天数约?SPAN lang=EN-US>24天左叟뀂从供给产业的集中度势来看Q大、中型煤炭企业在产能总量和增量A(ch)献中的比重快速提升,q将?x)强化国有煤炭企业对产能释放的控制力、促q煤炭经运行的有序性?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q?SPAN lang=EN-US>1?SPAN lang=EN-US>9月䆾的数据显C,国有、地方和乡镇煤矿产能比重分别?SPAN lang=EN-US>52.95Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>13.36Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>33.68Q增速分别ؓ(f)8.09%?SPAN lang=EN-US>3.37%?SPAN lang=EN-US>8.69%。国有重点煤矿能增速的Ex增加昄Z业集中度的提升,乡镇煤矿整顿后出现增速回升显C出新增产能逐步得到充分释放Q但增量后劲预期不如国有重点煤炭企业?SPAN lang=EN-US>

从供求总量、增速预期来看,2008q煤炭行业将l箋保持q势。我们预计,2007?SPAN lang=EN-US>2009q_(d)全国商品煤有效供l总量分别?SPAN lang=EN-US>24.26亿吨?SPAN lang=EN-US>26.25亿吨?SPAN lang=EN-US>28.34亿吨Q分别增?SPAN lang=EN-US>8.29%?SPAN lang=EN-US>8.23%?SPAN lang=EN-US>7.93%。预?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007?SPAN lang=EN-US>2009q_(d)全国煤炭需求总量分别?SPAN lang=EN-US>24.66亿吨?SPAN lang=EN-US>29.91亿吨?SPAN lang=EN-US>28.34亿吨Q分别增?SPAN lang=EN-US>10.26%?SPAN lang=EN-US>9.12%?SPAN lang=EN-US>7.55%?SPAN lang=EN-US>2008q原煤供l增量将?SPAN lang=EN-US>2.63亿吨左右、商品煤供给增量ؓ(f)2.0亿吨左右Q下游四行业合计需求增量ؓ(f)2.25亿吨左右Q考虑安全整顿Q供求将保持Mq?SPAN lang=EN-US>

多重因素助推涨h(hun)

我们预测Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>2008q煤炭h(hun)g涨幅度将?SPAN lang=EN-US>6?SPAN lang=EN-US>15%不等。以中央财政重点煤炭企业商品煤、供发电(sh)用煤h征,预期2008煤炭h上涨q度在8%?SPAN lang=EN-US>19.3?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨左叻I供发는煤上?SPAN lang=EN-US>10%?SPAN lang=EN-US>23.3?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨。以p省重点煤矿出厂h(hun)征,预期2008q煤炭h(hun)g?SPAN lang=EN-US>33.5?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨或10%左右Q若政策性成本l增加,p省重点煤炭出矿h(hun)格涨q将可能过预期?SPAN lang=EN-US>

分煤U而言Q我们对焦煤、肥煤、优质动力煤价保持乐观预期。从冉用煤(焦煤、肥煤、喷吹煤)的涨价顺畅程度、幅度预期综合看Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>2008q优质冶金用煤将上涨10%?SPAN lang=EN-US>15%左右。预?SPAN lang=EN-US>2008q优质动力煤h上涨预期q度?SPAN lang=EN-US>6%?0%Q若煤电(sh)联动实施、政{成本上升,涨幅可能在12%?5%左右?SPAN lang=EN-US>

在煤价预期相对乐观的前提下,煤炭A股公司利润ƈ不会(x)大幅度增长,核心原因在于政策性成本增?SPAN lang=EN-US>?/SPAN>侵蚀?/SPAN>了企业利润上升空间?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q山西煤炭企业被征收可持l发展基金,虽然煤h(hun)保持了较好的增长Q但p国有重点煤炭企业利润受到了较大程度的?/SPAN>侵蚀?/SPAN>?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q?SPAN lang=EN-US>1?SPAN lang=EN-US>9月山西国有重点煤炭企业篏计完成收?SPAN lang=EN-US>904.21亿元Q同比增?SPAN lang=EN-US>262.77亿元Q增qؓ(f)40.97%Q但累计盈利同比仅增?SPAN lang=EN-US>2.13亿元Q增qؓ(f)6.53%Q主要原因就是吨煤h(hun)g?SPAN lang=EN-US>21.56元,覆盖了政{性成本的增量Q但却未覆盖全部增量成本Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>1?SPAN lang=EN-US>9月煤炭成本同比增加了32.80元?SPAN lang=EN-US>

有信息显C,国家尽快推?SPAN lang=EN-US>?/SPAN>矿资源补偿费征收新标准?/SPAN>Q煤炭资源税费的合理提升是势Q但M负面影响q不?x)太大。在目前的供求环境及(qing)煤炭h市场化趋势的背景下,增加的税费完全可以向下游传导、{UR同旉态的敏感性分析显C,资源E和Ҏ(gu)从h(hun)征收Q在原来基础上合计每增加1%Q对净利润影响q_q度虽然?SPAN lang=EN-US>-4.5%左右Q但实质上考虑成本转移Q净利润减少q度要小。而且资源E和费的调整Q将q一步抑制中煤炭企业的产能冲动Q地方在E费分成比例提高后,通过转移支付Q将促进解决煤炭集团层面的负担?SPAN lang=EN-US>

从行业发展的历史和进E来看,2008q煤炭行业在弥补历史Ơ̎斚w的投入将大幅降低?SPAN lang=EN-US>2004q以前是历史Ơ̎期,安全与基设施、工资与利Ơ̎Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>2005?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q是高速投入期、I补历史欠账期Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>2008q后是开采条件快速提升、实体经运行质量彻底改善后的收h。从中长期趋势看Q煤炭行业将成ؓ(f)中国能源产业上、下怹间利润{U趋势中的受益者,煤h(hun)市场化的势不可逆{Q利润将向上游合理{UR可能在转移初期Q由于资源管理体制的变革、资源成本的逐步C{媄响,?x)出C游利润有大部分向中央财政转移的状况;但中后期Q在中央转移支付解决企业C会(x)负担、增强安全等基础设施后,企业层面的盈利将大幅度改善和提升Q将成ؓ(f)利益转移中的受益者。我们预计,2008q及(qing)以后?SPAN lang=EN-US>2?SPAN lang=EN-US>3q内Q煤炭行业的利润率水q仍保持合理上升,成本费用利润率将?SPAN lang=EN-US>10%?SPAN lang=EN-US>15%?SPAN lang=EN-US>

中国未来最具定仯语权

长期而言Q煤炭将成ؓ(f)中国未来最具定仯语权的大宗商品。目前中国煤炭h(hun)格Ş成机制正在发生根本变革,市场化趋势明,而煤炭h(hun)格回归合理h(hun)值才可实现国?SPAN lang=EN-US>?/SPAN>节能?/SPAN>目标。同时偏紧运力维护的供求关系煤炭企业w处?/SPAN>卖方市场?/SPAN>Q其定h(hun)话语权将促政策性成本{U至下游Q从而促使煤价上涨。此外以xa(b)hZ表的能源h走势昄Q全球已q入?/SPAN>高能源h(hun)格时?SPAN lang=EN-US>?/SPAN>Qa(b)、气{能源h(hun)格的大幅上涨使煤仯明显低估Q而美元弱势成为大宗商品h(hun)D牛的力量Q未来强势货币区域及(qing)新兴l济?SPAN lang=EN-US>(中国、印?SPAN lang=EN-US>)仍旧是煤炭需求增量的d军?SPAN lang=EN-US>

2007q?SPAN lang=EN-US>1?SPAN lang=EN-US>9月䆾Q中国煤炭连l维持篏计净q口状态,从最高年净出口?SPAN lang=EN-US>8312万吨转变到净q口60万吨Q中国煤炭进出口贸易方向的逆{Q改变了亚太地区煤炭的供求^衡格局。根据统计,中国2006q煤炭、销分别占亚太地区的67.77%?SPAN lang=EN-US>66.47%Q占全球煤炭产、销比重分别?SPAN lang=EN-US>38.42%?SPAN lang=EN-US>38.55%Q同2004?SPAN lang=EN-US>2005q相比,占比呈现上升势Q煤炭进出口贸易方向的逆{大大增Z国对亚太地区煤炭市场的主导媄响?

在行业景气上升、h(hun)格持l上涨的背景下,煤炭行业仍具投资Z(x)?SPAN lang=EN-US>2008q_(d)我们仍坚持三大策略,优先配置龙头企业Q坚持行业地位和代表性;挑选集团盈利能力强、采矿权问题障碍的企业Q选择融资高潮与业整合背景下的强势企业?B>

 



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